Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
7.6 miles North-East of Hollister
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.6 miles North-East of Hollister
36.9356°N, 121.3108°W
Forecast Time Window
26th of July 2026
Jul 26, 2026 04:45:11 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1545h 6m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
12.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
27.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.54
Predicted M3.44 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
11.2 km
Pred. 5.5 km vs actual 5.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
66a03e3fb86d3cb633306a29cfb49822352275dbfbdcbe3a5f848f583187e704
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260522_123820_pred-36.94--121.31-20260726T0445
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 22, 2026 19:38:25 PST
Source Batch
20260522_123820_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:07.609471+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.