Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M4.4
8.5 miles South of Convict Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.5 miles South of Convict Lake
37.4723°N, 118.9010°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of July 2026
Jul 27, 2026 05:11:15 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M4.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1569h 32m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
205.7 km
105.7 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
11.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.05
Predicted M4.45 vs actual M3.4
- 0.05 over limit
Depth Error
15.5 km
Pred. 5.5 km vs actual 10.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
73445bfd91900cf487927a0a0b0e4eedd1876b6225e7c0ddead18de2e5d61ca3
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260522_123820_pred-37.47--118.90-20260727T0511
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 22, 2026 19:38:25 PST
Source Batch
20260522_123820_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:07.609471+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.