Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
18.8 miles South-West of Modesto
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.8 miles South-West of Modesto
37.4615°N, 121.2562°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of August 2026
Aug 11, 2026 02:18:17 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
16.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1917h 29m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
98.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
8.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.03
Predicted M3.93 vs actual M3.9
Depth Error
21.1 km
Pred. 16.5 km vs actual 4.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b767a065fa1add21dc64ccf053febc6b2516d30477a54da276651ddb565c8a55
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260522_214848_pred-37.46--121.26-20260811T0218
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 23, 2026 04:48:54 PST
Source Batch
20260522_214848_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:08.640463+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.