Permanent Prediction Record
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Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
18.8 miles South-West of Modesto
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.8 miles South-West of Modesto
37.4615°N, 121.2562°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of July 2026
Jul 27, 2026 05:12:24 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
16.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1560h 21m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
58.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
3.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.03
Predicted M3.93 vs actual M2.9
- 0.03 over limit
Depth Error
22.2 km
Pred. 16.5 km vs actual 5.7 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ce025e2414986a3721bc4f4648e9289f25a0f1f568f88bc4a7152a6b62710f45
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260522_215044_pred-37.46--121.26-20260727T0512
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 23, 2026 04:50:49 PST
Source Batch
20260522_215044_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:09.804317+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.