Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
11.7 miles South of Coleville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.7 miles South of Coleville
38.3361°N, 119.4481°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of August 2026
Aug 10, 2026 23:13:24 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1914h 22m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
248.3 km
148.3 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
11.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.38
Predicted M3.52 vs actual M3.9
Depth Error
19.2 km
Pred. 14.6 km vs actual 4.6 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
88b253d230fd0b4a82d073f21a53d7ffe23ff11e16996674be7608c651f520bd
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260522_215044_pred-38.34--119.45-20260810T2313
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 23, 2026 04:50:49 PST
Source Batch
20260522_215044_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:45:09.804317+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.