Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
3.3 miles South-East of Racetrack Playa
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.3 miles South-East of Racetrack Playa
36.6594°N, 117.5144°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of June 2026
Jun 24, 2026 16:16:57 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
306h 56m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
88.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
12.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.23
Predicted M2.23 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
11.1 km
Pred. 3.1 km vs actual 7.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ff3f2d7f50040b780f7fdd3b5eea244963a741d222e5c4b9f31258d9cac24851
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260611_142010_pred-36.66--117.51-20260624T1616
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 11, 2026 21:20:13 PST
Source Batch
20260611_142010_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:44:42.672202+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.