Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
32.4 miles North of Mercury
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
32.4 miles North of Mercury
37.1322°N, 115.9155°W
Forecast Time Window
25th of June 2026
Jun 25, 2026 17:45:39 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
332h 25m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
45.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
3.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.22
Predicted M2.38 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
12.7 km
Pred. 4.1 km vs actual 8.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
04a2bfc9ff97bab60bb3a4520f4437810bbd5301a22b0ce11a0b7fefa709ca3a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260611_142010_pred-37.13--115.92-20260625T1745
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 11, 2026 21:20:13 PST
Source Batch
20260611_142010_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:44:42.672202+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.