Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
29.6 miles North of Sparks
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
29.6 miles North of Sparks
39.9546°N, 119.6406°W
Forecast Time Window
26th of June 2026
Jun 26, 2026 07:27:02 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
346h 6m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
95.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
24.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.96
Predicted M2.04 vs actual M3.0
Depth Error
12.7 km
Pred. 7.7 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
15487aba38bf1d4f61bef014bb059d754fc4ff0444fe5850304d41b3eb0c641a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260611_142010_pred-39.95--119.64-20260626T0727
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 11, 2026 21:20:13 PST
Source Batch
20260611_142010_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:44:42.672202+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.