Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
4.5 miles North-East of Jacumba Hot Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.5 miles North-East of Jacumba Hot Springs
32.6782°N, 116.1496°W
Forecast Time Window
13th of June 2026
Jun 13, 2026 11:14:02 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
28h 29m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
74.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
10.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.02
Predicted M2.12 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
17.2 km
Pred. 7.0 km vs actual 10.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d491e4e6ff86904a74ec98367f8e8a6eebf0d0a5ab95d7ead7ff4af9a0a0e6cd
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260611_234423_pred-32.68--116.15-20260613T1114
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 12, 2026 06:44:26 PST
Source Batch
20260611_234423_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:44:44.309977+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.