Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
4.5 miles North-East of Jacumba Hot Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.5 miles North-East of Jacumba Hot Springs
32.6782°N, 116.1496°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of June 2026
Jun 12, 2026 00:13:31 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
69.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
17.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.18
Predicted M2.12 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
16.4 km
Pred. 7.0 km vs actual 9.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
28975a17f6e05c97bb3196fc84f2465b6b6006e6388c88ea5b4ea99c5fceb7df
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260611_234539_pred-32.68--116.15-20260612T0013
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 12, 2026 06:45:42 PST
Source Batch
20260611_234539_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:44:45.079660+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.