Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
4.0 miles North-East of Jacumba Hot Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.0 miles North-East of Jacumba Hot Springs
32.6623°N, 116.1395°W
Forecast Time Window
13th of June 2026
Jun 13, 2026 11:14:02 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
23h 26m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
72.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
10.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.02
Predicted M2.12 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
17.2 km
Pred. 7.0 km vs actual 10.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
540100dafc890a08f561cdf3d95c19196a18fdf371cef3a5fd3d69f5ea27f60c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260612_044727_pred-32.66--116.14-20260613T1114
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 12, 2026 11:47:30 PST
Source Batch
20260612_044727_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:44:39.518317+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.