Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
3.3 miles South-West of Alamo
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.3 miles South-West of Alamo
37.8097°N, 122.0639°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of June 2026
Jun 15, 2026 05:11:00 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
55h 52m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
54.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
7.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M1.95 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
19.3 km
Pred. 9.7 km vs actual 9.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
94f82436c9b7465ba4fd94b3cedd29c4cf9de3a6658e0e255be9b4352c951e38
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260612_141829_pred-37.81--122.06-20260615T0511
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 12, 2026 21:18:32 PST
Source Batch
20260612_141829_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:44:41.049602+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.