Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
22.5 miles North of Warm Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
22.5 miles North of Warm Springs
38.5064°N, 116.4399°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of June 2026
Jun 24, 2026 22:57:54 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
289h 39m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
205.1 km
105.1 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
22.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.03
Predicted M2.63 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
11.8 km
Pred. 3.2 km vs actual 8.6 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
5b67edaa0ed3fc6e7bc6721a76eb745a7870ccf2b8e8d7b448354c8abc977789
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260612_141829_pred-38.51--116.44-20260624T2257
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 12, 2026 21:18:32 PST
Source Batch
20260612_141829_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:44:41.049602+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.