Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
17.4 miles North of Clear Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
17.4 miles North of Clear Lake
39.2970°N, 122.7878°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of June 2026
Jun 30, 2026 01:00:44 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
411h 42m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
39.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
5.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.21
Predicted M2.41 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
13.1 km
Pred. 6.7 km vs actual 6.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
427a712db508ba73f78773ff175fef1c8d3438207b0b8731e09f837664171e4a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260612_141829_pred-39.30--122.79-20260630T0100
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 12, 2026 21:18:32 PST
Source Batch
20260612_141829_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:44:41.049602+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.