Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
2.9 miles South of Ranchita
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.9 miles South of Ranchita
33.1624°N, 116.4984°W
Forecast Time Window
26th of June 2026
Jun 26, 2026 11:53:18 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
307h 59m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
89.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
0.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.32
Predicted M2.08 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
21.5 km
Pred. 6.4 km vs actual 15.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
29bd3135ad3d0248f30a932407f9fcab86b1bb9a233ca8cbea69386dbf9bf0fa
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260613_085340_pred-33.16--116.50-20260626T1153
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 13, 2026 15:53:43 PST
Source Batch
20260613_085340_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:44:38.016172+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.