Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M1.8
16.3 miles North-East of Somerset
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
16.3 miles North-East of Somerset
38.7609°N, 120.4224°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of June 2026
Jun 30, 2026 02:29:23 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M1.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
394h 35m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
133.4 km
33.4 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
8.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.36
Predicted M1.84 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
13.3 km
Pred. 6.4 km vs actual 6.9 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e5958f8f6e2c5712934f091df9ba00f50d6cba7837aabd58d39202d10ba487de
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260613_085340_pred-38.76--120.42-20260630T0229
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 13, 2026 15:53:43 PST
Source Batch
20260613_085340_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:44:38.016172+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.