Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
3.5 miles North of Moreno Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.5 miles North of Moreno Valley
33.9931°N, 117.2281°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of June 2026
Jun 27, 2026 15:46:54 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
318h 35m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
98.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
23.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.50
Predicted M2.3 vs actual M2.8
Depth Error
13.2 km
Pred. 8.2 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
c2b7ac73f8a4c91785f3bc4b0ae8dd3d73b5637a57e3f89165b49539acfb8372
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260614_021147_pred-33.99--117.23-20260627T1546
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 14, 2026 09:11:50 PST
Source Batch
20260614_021147_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:44:34.977029+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.