Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
10.4 miles South of Convict Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.4 miles South of Convict Lake
37.4435°N, 118.9016°W
Forecast Time Window
16th of June 2026
Jun 16, 2026 10:13:09 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
40h 38m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
13.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
1.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.25
Predicted M2.15 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
10.9 km
Pred. 4.7 km vs actual 6.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b46f94ea5087c6c72e6474df2a8aabfc058c0b40eca05af3fa9a681b4672f954
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260614_103455_pred-37.44--118.90-20260616T1013
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 14, 2026 17:34:57 PST
Source Batch
20260614_103455_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:44:35.754541+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.