Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
1.5 miles North of Orinda
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.5 miles North of Orinda
37.8972°N, 122.1886°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of June 2026
Jun 30, 2026 20:05:41 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
16.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
386h 30m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
25.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
25.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.09
Predicted M2.11 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
19.7 km
Pred. 16.6 km vs actual 3.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f91dbdccaad0f6a2783b103b333c94df199289db7cefc15172d7bba4e60eb847
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260614_103455_pred-37.90--122.19-20260630T2005
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 14, 2026 17:34:57 PST
Source Batch
20260614_103455_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:44:35.754541+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.