Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
9.9 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.9 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.2879°N, 119.1184°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of June 2026
Jun 15, 2026 22:17:24 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
9h 34m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
2.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
20.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.18
Predicted M2.78 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
18.3 km
Pred. 8.3 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
539c69f76ffa22cf1f252aec11cadb1af84529f9abdafe4a43926d8d578d7e1d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260615_054319_pred-39.29--119.12-20260615T2217
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 15, 2026 12:43:23 PST
Source Batch
20260615_054319_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:44:32.494933+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.