Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
9.6 miles South-West of Rock Creek
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.6 miles South-West of Rock Creek
37.4176°N, 118.8705°W
Forecast Time Window
16th of June 2026
Jun 16, 2026 19:06:09 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
21.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
14h 29m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
15.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
10.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.35 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
27.8 km
Pred. 21.6 km vs actual 6.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
9f8722f5e080cf867c820048bd32a02f822cf534ee0d26c51268f949201980d8
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260615_213639_pred-37.42--118.87-20260616T1906
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 16, 2026 04:36:43 PST
Source Batch
20260615_213639_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:44:34.074123+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.