Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
93.0 miles South-West of Gualala
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
93.0 miles South-West of Gualala
37.6286°N, 124.4494°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of July 2026
Jul 04, 2026 19:47:55 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
447h 11m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
218.0 km
118.0 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
5.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.16
Predicted M2.16 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
12.1 km
Pred. 6.0 km vs actual 6.1 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
dc74cccbb51d1243bcafc01ace7ab03a38daef55a4826abbd0eb0e56ef160bba
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260615_213639_pred-37.63--124.45-20260704T1947
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 16, 2026 04:36:43 PST
Source Batch
20260615_213639_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:44:34.074123+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.