Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
11.5 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.5 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.2668°N, 119.1029°W
Forecast Time Window
17th of June 2026
Jun 17, 2026 02:51:43 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
22h 15m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
7.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
27.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.60
Predicted M2.7 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
12.1 km
Pred. 5.9 km vs actual 6.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
5e5f3726bf3c18579a1cccb63a94c3e144c59adca10e712771cc8d9b3a43ac35
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260615_213639_pred-39.27--119.10-20260617T0251
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 16, 2026 04:36:43 PST
Source Batch
20260615_213639_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:44:34.074123+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.