Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
11.4 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.4 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.2975°N, 119.0670°W
Forecast Time Window
3rd of July 2026
Jul 03, 2026 17:26:39 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
420h 49m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
3.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
21.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.02
Predicted M2.38 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
17.4 km
Pred. 9.4 km vs actual 8.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
55988230e73f7aec8cb45cd92638f128da7b6dc2367c4372ffa6156ab7eb5a98
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260615_213639_pred-39.30--119.07-20260703T1726
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 16, 2026 04:36:43 PST
Source Batch
20260615_213639_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:44:34.074123+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.