Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
2.7 miles North-West of Lafayette
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.7 miles North-West of Lafayette
37.9158°N, 122.1481°W
Forecast Time Window
3rd of July 2026
Jul 03, 2026 20:39:55 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
411h 28m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
29.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
30.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.41
Predicted M1.99 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
9.1 km
Pred. 3.6 km vs actual 5.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
c508c8a38cb4bd59e3b1ca6a725c9d8833f9c3cc310d799a74ce177ce819afb5
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260616_101137_pred-37.92--122.15-20260703T2039
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 16, 2026 17:11:41 PST
Source Batch
20260616_101137_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:44:30.085749+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.