Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
7.2 miles North-East of Geyserville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.2 miles North-East of Geyserville
38.7870°N, 122.7989°W
Forecast Time Window
29th of June 2026
Jun 29, 2026 01:02:00 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
295h 50m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
5.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
30.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.18
Predicted M2.12 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
6.5 km
Pred. 4.0 km vs actual 2.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
2bb9b2b2cc6186dbe45694870d5990e9cfb430cf56ec351e85f8ae137798fc58
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260616_101137_pred-38.79--122.80-20260629T0102
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 16, 2026 17:11:41 PST
Source Batch
20260616_101137_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:44:30.085749+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.