Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
11.5 miles South of Orland
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.5 miles South of Orland
39.5838°N, 122.1568°W
Forecast Time Window
29th of June 2026
Jun 29, 2026 00:01:48 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
294h 50m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
47.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
7.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.36
Predicted M2.36 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
13.1 km
Pred. 3.1 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
6a8dd63e6fc172b2e770e17b3d431574705d5a09e8dba997e98e77b0035972dd
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260616_101137_pred-39.58--122.16-20260629T0001
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 16, 2026 17:11:41 PST
Source Batch
20260616_101137_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:44:30.085749+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.