Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
4.6 miles North-East of Jacumba Hot Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.6 miles North-East of Jacumba Hot Springs
32.6787°N, 116.1491°W
Forecast Time Window
17th of June 2026
Jun 17, 2026 11:04:29 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
4h 53m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
64.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
8.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.06
Predicted M2.04 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
15.0 km
Pred. 4.4 km vs actual 10.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
37ea06bafb5b819cab4d7a5b25438d2476ac754ab9efabcf35e8019c0b719105
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260616_231026_pred-32.68--116.15-20260617T1104
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 17, 2026 06:10:30 PST
Source Batch
20260616_231026_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:44:31.523827+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.