Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
15.3 miles North-East of Lake Berryessa
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
15.3 miles North-East of Lake Berryessa
38.7778°N, 122.0807°W
Forecast Time Window
29th of June 2026
Jun 29, 2026 05:39:28 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
287h 28m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
72.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
13.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.13
Predicted M2.07 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
7.5 km
Pred. 4.4 km vs actual 3.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
39e5078829bcc4517d151921193a167bed89c6315451152f8095b7512c6b708b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260616_231026_pred-38.78--122.08-20260629T0539
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 17, 2026 06:10:30 PST
Source Batch
20260616_231026_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:44:31.523827+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.