Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
3.6 miles West of Dublin
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.6 miles West of Dublin
37.7059°N, 122.0011°W
Forecast Time Window
21st of July 2026
Jul 21, 2026 15:33:47 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
819h 15m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
13.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
33.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.03
Predicted M3.53 vs actual M2.5
- 0.03 over limit
Depth Error
12.2 km
Pred. 9.0 km vs actual 3.2 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
0f4de26ead601b3d2e5a9d099d2982c8c4098342f699e2ff5fff08b91e547ec5
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260617_051805_pred-37.71--122.00-20260721T1533
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 17, 2026 12:18:10 PST
Source Batch
20260617_051805_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:44:27.827519+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.