Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
40.0 miles South of Jacumba Hot Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
40.0 miles South of Jacumba Hot Springs
32.0491°N, 116.3021°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of July 2026
Jul 01, 2026 14:39:37 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
327h 14m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
92.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
3.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.03
Predicted M2.23 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
11.5 km
Pred. 8.9 km vs actual 2.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e36d50556a111a8bbd98698824a07db051b2881d126c26fc70c0bd17af2da996
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260617_162519_pred-32.05--116.30-20260701T1439
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 17, 2026 23:25:24 PST
Source Batch
20260617_162519_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:44:28.527186+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.