Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
13.0 miles South-West of Oceanside
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
13.0 miles South-West of Oceanside
33.0381°N, 117.5004°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of June 2026
Jun 30, 2026 12:45:34 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
301h 20m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
88.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
22.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.21
Predicted M2.21 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
10.1 km
Pred. 5.9 km vs actual 4.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
63cc8b51ba61e05fd08da297f1d681a7e2a364d8cb00410593cf7ad09b84b4a0
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260617_162519_pred-33.04--117.50-20260630T1245
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 17, 2026 23:25:24 PST
Source Batch
20260617_162519_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:44:28.527186+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.