Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M1.9
2.7 miles South-West of Alamo
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.7 miles South-West of Alamo
37.8159°N, 122.0587°W
Forecast Time Window
20th of June 2026
Jun 20, 2026 12:52:03 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M1.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
61h 26m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
12.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
38.0 h
2.0 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.15
Predicted M1.95 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
17.0 km
Pred. 8.0 km vs actual 9.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
3cb85e9ec9a106ed8e0259efa37342da7748abc6ff919db7fde1274d7108465e
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260617_162519_pred-37.82--122.06-20260620T1252
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 17, 2026 23:25:24 PST
Source Batch
20260617_162519_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:44:28.527186+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.