Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
14.5 miles South of Fallon
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
14.5 miles South of Fallon
39.2661°N, 118.8223°W
Forecast Time Window
19th of June 2026
Jun 19, 2026 06:25:51 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
31h 0m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
20.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
24.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.65
Predicted M2.75 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
13.2 km
Pred. 7.0 km vs actual 6.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
94267ef1a8cf95f61fd19e0cae11e4a2deafe84f2147071f8faa2c0dc198c647
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260617_162519_pred-39.27--118.82-20260619T0625
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 17, 2026 23:25:24 PST
Source Batch
20260617_162519_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:44:28.527186+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.