Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
6.3 miles North of Portola
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.3 miles North of Portola
39.8972°N, 120.4320°W
Forecast Time Window
6th of July 2026
Jul 06, 2026 05:05:35 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
422h 32m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
26.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
19.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.01
Predicted M2.01 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
23.7 km
Pred. 15.3 km vs actual 8.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
0ba01f13118e15adcc1433a1ba25a72bc0ce07b0cdc74e7af61955ba509a65be
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260618_073309_pred-39.90--120.43-20260706T0505
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 18, 2026 14:33:14 PST
Source Batch
20260618_073309_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-24 08:32:44.851388+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.