Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
6.3 miles North of Portola
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.3 miles North of Portola
39.8972°N, 120.4320°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of July 2026
Jul 04, 2026 23:54:20 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
393h 19m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
26.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
48.5 h
12.5 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.01
Predicted M2.01 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
23.7 km
Pred. 15.3 km vs actual 8.4 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
73c2d4107e162c0e5faa0a8764a568a35dece785c71a5bd238dc3dcec326eeb8
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260618_073510_pred-39.90--120.43-20260704T2354
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 18, 2026 14:35:15 PST
Source Batch
20260618_073510_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-24 08:32:45.661771+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.