Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
40.1 miles South of Jacumba Hot Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
40.1 miles South of Jacumba Hot Springs
32.0513°N, 116.3267°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of June 2026
Jun 30, 2026 04:55:28 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
278h 18m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
95.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
30.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.21
Predicted M2.41 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
17.5 km
Pred. 14.9 km vs actual 2.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
8b009674fa9783e1feb536e9200b4080bb42889cb649419e5e680df0b5651d36
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260618_073655_pred-32.05--116.33-20260630T0455
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 18, 2026 14:37:01 PST
Source Batch
20260618_073655_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-24 08:32:46.459824+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.