Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
22.6 miles South-West of Austin
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
22.6 miles South-West of Austin
39.2821°N, 117.3948°W
Forecast Time Window
7th of July 2026
Jul 07, 2026 01:27:55 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
403h 38m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
52.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
32.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.02
Predicted M2.28 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
11.6 km
Pred. 6.7 km vs actual 4.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
97537fe5a5a09540d95bce0500fce1b95eb2c8c469a81120d0deab2f2be38c98
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260619_224933_pred-39.28--117.39-20260707T0127
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 20, 2026 05:49:38 PST
Source Batch
20260619_224933_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-22 11:57:36.287170+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.