Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
4.6 miles South-West of Princeton
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.6 miles South-West of Princeton
39.3502°N, 122.0733°W
Forecast Time Window
3rd of July 2026
Jul 03, 2026 00:43:16 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
306h 53m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
86.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
25.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.24
Predicted M2.54 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
9.8 km
Pred. 8.1 km vs actual 1.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a75f6f59fd2cf86134c2c6b5fc9da27a7e0c67d90d5c3e4d994a0a0921732805
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260619_224933_pred-39.35--122.07-20260703T0043
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 20, 2026 05:49:38 PST
Source Batch
20260619_224933_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-22 11:57:36.287170+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.