Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
22.6 miles South-West of Austin
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
22.6 miles South-West of Austin
39.2821°N, 117.3948°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of July 2026
Jul 05, 2026 23:24:49 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
377h 33m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
130.9 km
30.9 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
13.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.02
Predicted M2.28 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
15.3 km
Pred. 6.7 km vs actual 8.6 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e030038313c8463bb6868f3a42a031cd9ffeafa47f2b25be9087a63f2cb2383d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260619_225137_pred-39.28--117.39-20260705T2324
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 20, 2026 05:51:41 PST
Source Batch
20260619_225137_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-22 11:57:37.139116+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.