Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
9.9 miles North of Williams
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.9 miles North of Williams
39.2971°N, 122.1677°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of July 2026
Jul 05, 2026 23:43:41 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
377h 52m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
93.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
8.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.23
Predicted M2.23 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
9.6 km
Pred. 5.3 km vs actual 4.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
45e46cfa545666850136e0d31732e5d4e05bc04843c9a3d962f92b3822e29468
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260619_225137_pred-39.30--122.17-20260705T2343
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 20, 2026 05:51:41 PST
Source Batch
20260619_225137_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-22 11:57:37.139116+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.