Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
4.6 miles South-West of Princeton
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.6 miles South-West of Princeton
39.3502°N, 122.0733°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of July 2026
Jul 01, 2026 22:40:11 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
280h 48m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
86.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
12.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.44
Predicted M2.54 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
10.3 km
Pred. 8.1 km vs actual 2.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a43e9c5e611bd2910d26305789a043e86e7282c242b845a8931937a5100f35aa
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260619_225137_pred-39.35--122.07-20260701T2240
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 20, 2026 05:51:41 PST
Source Batch
20260619_225137_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-22 11:57:37.139116+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.