Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
7.9 miles South of Convict Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.9 miles South of Convict Lake
37.4738°N, 118.8442°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of June 2026
Jun 22, 2026 18:40:11 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
2.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
3h 24m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
61.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
9.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.07
Predicted M2.13 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
42.0 km
Pred. 2.7 km vs actual 39.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7514bf6e7529eb51b20bec1c2e992e8dc95f6cbd264c2a3602a1cb66e2500dee
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260622_081550_pred-37.47--118.84-20260622T1840
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 22, 2026 15:15:55 PST
Source Batch
20260622_081550_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-24 08:32:41.145978+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.