Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
6.6 miles East of Geyserville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.6 miles East of Geyserville
38.7518°N, 122.7885°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of June 2026
Jun 22, 2026 18:33:34 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
0.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
3h 17m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
11.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
6.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.11
Predicted M2.19 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
1.4 km
Pred. 0.1 km vs actual 1.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
1cf571d37084e9982cfce5c6490f26b1f110735b8f512ec7c10c3ecddcf055d7
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260622_081550_pred-38.75--122.79-20260622T1833
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 22, 2026 15:15:55 PST
Source Batch
20260622_081550_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-24 08:32:41.145978+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.