Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
10.8 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.8 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.2938°N, 119.0848°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of June 2026
Jun 22, 2026 19:12:18 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
3h 56m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
8.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
17.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.73
Predicted M2.83 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
12.9 km
Pred. 5.8 km vs actual 7.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
5f2cb9014e3fa37f984a6b3e8c9d473ef8a46476cf094c759cb38cb50c36aaf8
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260622_081550_pred-39.29--119.08-20260622T1912
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 22, 2026 15:15:55 PST
Source Batch
20260622_081550_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-24 08:32:41.145978+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.