Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
3.2 miles West of Simi Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.2 miles West of Simi Valley
34.2582°N, 118.8367°W
Forecast Time Window
6th of July 2026
Jul 06, 2026 02:24:54 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
298h 59m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
92.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
18.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.26
Predicted M2.26 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
18.5 km
Pred. 5.6 km vs actual 12.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e088ac74d7a7049be533e8684f92d8d49e67fb8b76a6029ab7a4bae75cd414db
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260623_082501_pred-34.26--118.84-20260706T0224
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 23, 2026 15:25:04 PST
Source Batch
20260623_082501_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-24 08:31:45.489329+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.