Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
13.6 miles South of Burney
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
13.6 miles South of Burney
40.6857°N, 121.6880°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of June 2026
Jun 23, 2026 23:31:31 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
2.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
8h 6m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
45.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
12.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.17
Predicted M2.17 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
2.7 km
Pred. 2.1 km vs actual 0.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
59d4d26ae4d538301d728bd1c3100218f7bd1059208f5d32fc041d0b12b98cd6
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260623_082501_pred-40.69--121.69-20260623T2331
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 23, 2026 15:25:04 PST
Source Batch
20260623_082501_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-24 08:31:45.489329+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.