Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M1.9
27.9 miles North of Sparks
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
27.9 miles North of Sparks
39.9252°N, 119.6153°W
Forecast Time Window
7th of July 2026
Jul 07, 2026 23:17:40 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M1.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
327h 9m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
95.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
22.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.09
Predicted M1.91 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
14.2 km
Pred. 5.8 km vs actual 8.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b630a1468b051c1a0d41e880f5f25b9de3dc5a806c840db9ac4d0653c199aa76
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260624_010829_pred-39.93--119.62-20260707T2317
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 24, 2026 08:08:32 PST
Source Batch
20260624_010829_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-25 08:31:34.265642+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.