Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
3.2 miles South of Laguna Beach
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.2 miles South of Laguna Beach
33.4980°N, 117.7694°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of July 2026
Jul 09, 2026 10:06:46 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
350h 55m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
89.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
1.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.02
Predicted M2.22 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
18.0 km
Pred. 4.0 km vs actual 14.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
3fa9f718644c9c2eb1c4b94927c406b3df18636a353888391cf45fcee1069b6f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260624_121116_pred-33.50--117.77-20260709T1006
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 24, 2026 19:11:19 PST
Source Batch
20260624_121116_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-25 08:31:35.155759+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.