Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
13.2 miles South-West of Mammoth Lakes
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
13.2 miles South-West of Mammoth Lakes
37.4962°N, 119.1180°W
Forecast Time Window
8th of July 2026
Jul 08, 2026 11:32:26 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
328h 21m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
86.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
27.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.69
Predicted M2.89 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
17.0 km
Pred. 6.5 km vs actual 10.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
994e93d935b232834f544e8f050b69ab6e53892e95890840fdf8d34bd5171fb2
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260624_121116_pred-37.50--119.12-20260708T1132
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jun 24, 2026 19:11:19 PST
Source Batch
20260624_121116_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-25 08:31:35.155759+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.